2022 will mark the centenary of the BBC and, while it is still some time away, now is the time we should start to wonder about how it will look by that time.
In the last ten years, BBC output has changed significantly, as it tries to keep ahead of changes in technology and lead the market with on-demand services like iPlayer. But how will the coming decade shape this further?
Television
By 2022, the face of the BBC’s TV output will most certainly have changed – but not beyond all recognition. BBC One will hope to remain the nation’s favourite channel, though increasing numbers will likely be watched on-demand or on the move.
The decline in linear viewing means money will be saved on distribution via TV masts, satellite and cable and could be ploughed back into programme-making and the mantra of ‘fewer, better’ will become a watchword across all output.
Jana Bennett, the BBC’s former Vision director, explains: “It would be a mistake to assume TV channels won’t be needed, but the trick will be how they work in tandem with different types of mobile technology.”
Radio
The majority of radio listening will be digital. Competition will be fierce, with Radio 1 up against more versatile online music sites like Spotify and Napster for younger audiences. However, this doesn’t mean FM listening will die, as analogue sets will still be present in the cars of millions.
With a healthy and ageing population, more of us will be around to listen to the delights of Radio 2, which means by 2022 they’ll be on course for 20 million listeners a week. An increase in listeners is also predicted for Radio 4 and BBC local radio.
Digital
The digital revolution will be in full swing, with mobile devices continuing to advance and smart TVs in 50 per cent of households (source: Enders Analysis). The BBC will use this to indulge innovation, with viewers able to buy programmes that have just aired using the ambitious ‘Project Barcelona’ and access over one million hours of BBC archive programming. You might even want to watch an Eastenders story line through the eyes of your favourite character (it’s got to be Alfie Moon, right?) by simply waving your smartphone. Goodbye Red Button – hello total viewer control.
Funding
The debate surrounding the cultural relevance of the BBC in the digital era will ultimately shape its scale and funding through royal charter and licence fee renewal negotiations. The decision to freeze the licence fee has cut real-term funding by 16 per cent until 2017 and the ramifications of this will truly be seen when new negotiations begin in 2015.
The argument that as a public service broadcaster, the BBC must provide what commercial rivals cannot, may take more sway as competitors including BskyB extend their output further in to traditional BBC territory. Dawn Airey, former BSkyB and Channel 5 executive says: “That will all come up again … but I’m sure the corporation will see off the most serious challenges. There is always going to be death, taxes and the BBC.”
MEC Opinion: The integration of multiple technologies will be paramount to the development of BBC programming and the importance of this- and the behaviour of second screening – can already be seen in TV.
Take, for example, the integration of Shazam into coverage of The Brit Awards in February. Ten years from now, consumers will demand options just like this and much more besides – and media owners like the BBC must respond now to stay ahead. Who needs a crystal ball?